Monte Carlo Plus
FCA/PRA-Aligned · ICARA/ICAAP-Ready · Live Platform

Rapid insight into operational risk capital requirements

Monte Carlo Plus (mc+) is a live API-powered OpVaR engine for UK investment firms and banks — 99.5%, 99.9%, or any required confidence level, fully documented, and aligned with FCA/PRA ICARA/ICAAP expectations.

Aligned with: MIFIDPRU 7 (IFPR/ICARA) · SYSC · FG 21/5 · FG 16/5 · PRA SS1/23 · Basel III / CRD

Explore the model
99.5–99.9%
Any required confidence level
Up to 1m
Monte Carlo iterations, in seconds
100+
Scenarios supported
Inbuilt
OpRisk Deltas
FCA/PRA
ICARA/ICAAP use-test ready
Operational risk capital is complex. Managing it shouldn't be.

Regulatory expectations for operational risk modelling are growing for both investment firms (FCA/ICARA) and banks (PRA/ICAAP), but most firms lack the tools to model it rigorously — and the time to build them.

⏱️
Too much time on calculation

Teams spend weeks building spreadsheets for ICARA instead of acting on the results.

🔧

Complex modelling burdenBuilding Monte Carlo simulations, calibrating distributions, and managing correlation matrices requires specialist expertise most firms don't have in-house.

📋

FCA/PRA documentation gapsFirms struggle to demonstrate model governance, validation, and use-test compliance to FCA and PRA supervisors under ICARA and ICAAP respectively.

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Annual refresh painUpdating scenarios, re-running simulations, and re-documenting every year consumes disproportionate resources.

Our Solution
mc+ puts capital modelling on autopilot

Enter your scenarios. mc+ computes the full loss distribution, OpVaR at any required confidence level, diversification benefit, and OpRisk Deltas — instantly, reproducibly, and with full audit trail.

01

Live API computation

Up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo iterations run server-side in seconds. No spreadsheets. No local models. Any confidence level — 99.5%, 99.9%, or as required.

02

Full model governance

Built-in governance framework covering roles, validation, change policy, and data controls — ready for FCA and PRA supervisory review under ICARA and ICAAP.

03

Scenario management

Support for 100+ scenarios. Enter typical and worst-case losses, likelihoods, and correlations via structured templates. SME inputs captured and challenged automatically.

04

OpRisk Deltas inbuilt

Sensitivity analysis across severity, likelihood, and correlation — inbuilt OpRisk Deltas identify the largest capital drivers across your entire scenario set.

Rigorous statistics. Transparent mechanics.

mc+ uses industry-standard distributions and dependency modelling, fully documented and aligned with FCA/PRA expectations for robust, forward-looking capital modelling under ICARA and ICAAP.

Severity

Lognormal distribution

Two-parameter lognormal calibrated from typical loss (mode) and worst-case loss (95th percentile). The most widely-used distribution for operational risk loss modelling.

Loss ~ LogNormal(μ, σ²)
Frequency

Bernoulli distribution

Each scenario is modelled as a Bernoulli event — either it occurs in the year (1) or it doesn't (0). Annual aggregate severity used for high-frequency scenarios.

P(event) ~ Bernoulli(p)
Dependency

Copula-based correlation

Gaussian copula (default) captures linear dependency between scenarios. T-copula available for amplified tail dependency in stress scenarios.

Σ positive semi-definite
Simulation

Mersenne Twister RNG

Up to 1,000,000 iterations for stable results, completed in seconds. Outputs sorted to derive OpVaR at 99.5%, 99.9%, or any required confidence level for ICARA/ICAAP.

VaR₉₉.₅ / VaR₉₉.₉ = F⁻¹(p)
Aggregation

Diversification benefit

Aggregate OpVaR incorporating correlation-driven diversification. Minimum 10% correlation floor between all scenarios, consistent with FCA guidance.

OpVaR < Σ scenario VaR
Cross-check

Analytical validation

Simulation results cross-checked against an analytical OpVaR formula. Parameterisation tested by reproducing typical and worst-case inputs from μ/σ.

Sim ≈ Analytical OpVaR
Scenario OpVaR
99.5–99.9%
Any confidence level
Aggregate OpVaR
Diversified
Portfolio
OpRisk Deltas
Inbuilt
Severity · Likelihood · Corr
Stress testing
T-copula
Tail amplification
ICARA/ICAAP narrative
Ready
FCA/PRA use-test
Model Governance
Built-in governance. FCA-ready documentation.

mc+ ships with a complete Model Governance Framework covering roles, responsibilities, change policy, and data controls — everything needed to satisfy FCA and PRA supervisory scrutiny under ICARA and ICAAP.

Model owner

Operational Risk

Owns methodology, ensures model remains fit for purpose, maintains documentation and annual refresh.

Developer

Risk Analytics

Implements model logic, maintains code, ensures computational accuracy and version control.

Validator

Independent Risk / Audit

Performs independent validation every 3 years, challenges assumptions, and tests stability.

SMEs

Business Units

Provide scenario inputs — typical and worst-case losses, likelihoods, and correlation estimates.

Approval

Risk Committee

Approves model assumptions, results, and material changes. Methodology changes require committee sign-off.

Board

ICARA sign-off

Approves the ICARA including model outputs. Board-level accountability for operational risk capital.

Designed for UK investment firms and banks

mc+ is built from the ground up to meet FCA and PRA expectations for robust, forward-looking, and proportionate operational risk modelling — covering both ICARA (investment firms) and ICAAP (banks) under the respective regulatory regimes.

MIFIDPRU 7 (IFPR/ICARA) — capital adequacy for FCA-regulated investment firms; mc+ directly supports the operational risk capital component of the ICARA process

PRA Pillar 2 / ICAAP — Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process for PRA-regulated banks and building societies; mc+ provides the OpVaR at 99.9% or any required confidence level

SYSC (Systems & Controls) — model governance framework satisfies FCA/PRA expectations for robust risk management infrastructure

FG 21/5 (Wind-down planning) — operational risk scenarios include wind-down stress events relevant to both investment firms and banks

FG 16/5 (Operational risk frameworks) — scenario-based approach and SME challenge process aligned with FCA/PRA guidance

PRA SS1/23 (Model risk — best practice) — governance, validation, and documentation standards adopted as best practice for both FCA and PRA supervised firms

Basel III / CRD (Standardised/AMA) — mc+ methodology consistent with Basel operational risk capital principles for internationally active banks

Use Cases
How firms use mc+

The model satisfies FCA and PRA use-test requirements — it must be genuinely embedded in business decision-making, not produced solely for regulatory compliance.

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ICARA/ICAAP capital assessment

Primary use — annual operational risk capital calculation for ICARA (investment firms) and ICAAP (banks)

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Risk appetite setting

OpVaR outputs inform board-level risk appetite thresholds and tolerance statements

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Scenario analysis

Explore how changes to individual scenarios affect aggregate capital requirements

Stress testing

T-copula amplification, reverse stress tests, and increased correlation scenarios

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Insurance decisions

Use modelled loss distributions to calibrate appropriate insurance cover levels

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Risk reporting

Structured outputs for operational risk committee and board reporting packs

Model Validation
Seven-component validation framework

Every mc+ model is subject to independent validation covering conceptual soundness, parameterisation, and stress testing — satisfying FCA and PRA model risk expectations.

1

Conceptual soundness

Lognormal severity and Bernoulli frequency confirmed as industry-standard; copula-based dependency modelling assessed as appropriate

2

Input validation

SME inputs challenged for plausibility using structured impact and likelihood templates; consistency checks applied

3

Parameterisation testing

Typical and worst-case loss inputs reproduced from derived μ/σ parameters to verify calibration accuracy

4

Analytical vs simulation comparison

Analytical OpVaR formula used as an independent cross-check against simulation output

5

Sensitivity analysis (OpRisk Deltas)

Severity, likelihood, and correlation sensitivity tested — inbuilt OpRisk Deltas identify the largest capital drivers and assess model stability across all scenarios

6

Back-testing

Where historical annual loss data exists, modelled distribution compared against actual losses

7

Stress testing

T-copula amplification, increased correlation scenarios, and reverse stress tests applied to validate tail behaviour

Ready to take control of your operational risk capital?

Request a demo of mc+ and see how it fits into your ICARA or ICAAP process.

Email us directly
Phone+44 (0)20 7859 4667
Mobile+44 (0)7432 633984
RegisteredEconomic Capital Solutions Ltd · No. 9131856
Registered Office170 Priory Road, Tonbridge, Kent TN9 2BL